A New Level of Terrorism?

Monday, December 8, 2025

According to the IAEA, the confinement system at Chernobyl no longer functions properly.  Unfortunately, all the reporting I have seen gives no numbers so that it could be determined just how significant the issues are.  The press release from the IAEA on which all this reporting is based does not give any numbers either.  One does not know whether to be terrified or cynical.  One should; however, be overjoyed that Indiana University (previously considered a football doormat) beat Ohio State for the Big Ten football championship Saturday night just past – much to the host’s chagrin.

Okay, back to the subject at hand.  Here’s how the CNN report (previously linked) opens:

The protective shield built around the Chernobyl nuclear disaster site in Ukraine can no longer do its job to confine radioactive waste as a result of a drone strike earlier this year, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The New Safe Confinement (NSC) at Chernobyl, which was “severely damaged” by the drone strike in February, has “lost its primary safety functions, including the confinement capability,” the IAEA said in a Friday statement.

Ukraine accused Russia of carrying out the February 14 strike at Chernobyl, which the Kremlin denied.

The unanswered questions there are tremendous.  The CNN report says “confine radioactive waste” which is not mentioned in the press release.  Confining radioactive waste and confining radioactivity are two different things.  I presume the issues are with the latter and the CNN phrasing was born of ignorance.

Reasons to be cynical – near the end of the IAEA press release:

Based on the mission findings, the IAEA recommends further restoration and protective work of the NSC structure, including humidity control measures and an updated corrosion monitoring programme, as well as an upgrade of an integrated automatic monitoring system for the shelter object structure built on top of the reactor immediately after the accident.

To which CNN adds regarding the construction of the current confinement and safety structure:

The project cost €2.1 billion and was funded by contributions from more than 45 donor countries and organizations through the Chernobyl Shelter Fund, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which in 2019 hailed the venture as “the largest international collaboration ever in the field of nuclear safety.”

Chernobyl is a cash cow for a lot of people, including the IAEA.  Everyone involved has an incentive to keep the money flowing, which means the problems need to keep coming.  Were I in a decision making capacity I would want specifics about what precisely is wrong and how bad the problem really is so that my experts could evaluate the problem independently.  The absence of even minimal data about how much radiation is being leaked makes me suspicious.

Reasons to be terrified – nuclear terrorism to the world.

If this is indeed the result of a drone attack on the confinement structure by Russia – and I think that likely, Russian denials notwithstanding – this is an act of terror and not warfare.  There is no strategic value in striking the Chernobyl site – the three power generating reactors left at the site after the accident are not operational.  Such an attack does not harm Ukraine’s power grid at all.  There is; however, immense terroristic value in hitting the confinement structure.  And not just to Ukraine, but the world.

It must be remembered that the initial accident created a cloud of radioactivity that was detected globally. – including in agricultural products in what was then considered western Europe.  That pile of nuclear waste threatens the world, not just Ukraine.  In attacking systems built by the world, again not just Ukraine, to contain and confine it, Putin’s Russia commits terrorism on a global scale.

What I can say is that regardless of how bad the issues are at Chernobyl that it was attacked at all is horrific – both this drone strike and the initial capture, then return, of the site by Russian troops early in the war.  It is an indirect attack on the world – seriously, the entire world.  Putin is a monster.