Election 2026: Incumbents Davis, Edwards shift to toss-up in Sabato’s

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(The Center Square) – Incumbent U.S. Reps. Don Davis and Chuck Edwards on Thursday received new election ratings forecasts from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, each in a district changed to toss-up from leans Republican.

Known colloquially as Sabato’s Crystal Ball, founder and Editor in Chief Larry Sabato along with Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and Associate Editor Miles Coleman analyzes every election race in the nation involving the president, U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, and governors. Taxpayer dollars, federal and from Virginia, fund the Center for Politics.

In the U.S. Senate race, the election analyst on June 11 changed the race of Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley from toss-up to leans Democrat. There has been no change since.

Majority power in the Senate and House of Representatives figures to be impacted by at least two races in the Old North State, and perhaps three if Sabato's in on target. Republicans have 53 seats in the upper chamber, and 218 in the lower chamber where there are four vacancies and one independent formerly a Republican and still caucusing with them. At the 2024 election cycle, Republicans gained a 220-215 edge.

North Carolina has two Republicans in the Senate, 10 in the House, and four Democrats in the House.

Davis, of the 1st Congressional District, is a Democrat challenged by Republican Laurie Buckhout. Edwards, of the 11th Congressional District, is a Republican challenged by Democrat Jamie Ager.

Republicans have never done well in the northeastern part of the state. The last time the U.S. House representative in the northeastern part of the state was won by a Republican was the 1882 election. That was 71 U.S. House elections ago.

The General Assembly changed the congressional map to help last fall.

Beaufort, Hyde, Dare, Craven, Pamlico and Carteret counties change from the 3rd to the 1st Congressional District; Wilson, Wayne, Greene and Lenoir counties change from the 1st to the 3rd. The only district of 14 with closer than 13% difference in 2024 was a win by Davis over Buckhout by 1.7%.

Sabato's says in part, “a toss-up rating might be a little generous.” It also notes as a hurt to Republicans that a Libertarian is on the ballot. Tom Bailey, of Greensboro, lives closest to the district at a roughly 80 miles ride to the western-most edge of the district in Granville County and is farthest at 250 miles to the eastern-most edge at Cape Lookout in Carteret County.

Congressmen do not have to live in their respective districts.

Differentiations because of court orders have been in each map used for four of the last five congressional elections – 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022. The Legislature’s draw in 2024 was the other.

Edwards’ district in the mountains, from Avery to McDowell and Polk counties north-south extending to the southwestern tip of the state, is in the heart of cleanup from Hurricane Helene’s remnants coming through in September 2024. Ager got the bump in part through campaign finance reports, Sabato’s Crystal Ball says.

Ager, through the second quarter ending June 30, has donations of more than $3 million and cash on hand of more than $2.1 million, according to the Federal Elections Commission. Edwards has donations of $915,000 and cash on hand of $485,000. The analysis notes only $155,000 raised by Edwards in the second quarter along with a Committee on Ethics probe in the House.

The district was carried by second-term Republican President Donald Trump three times, including by 10% in 2024. He's also nearing saying how about $385 million in the MAGA, Inc. super PAC will be distributed.

Edwards defeated Democrat Caleb Rudow 56.8%-43.2% in 2024; and Jasmine Beach-Ferrara 53.8%-44.5% in 2022, with Libertarian David Coatney (1.7%) on the ballot. The seat belonged to Republican Madison Cawthorn before Edwards, and he won in 2020 by 12.2%. Republican Mark Meadows prevailed by 20.5% in 2018, 28.2% in 2016, 25.8% in 2014 and 14.8% in 2012.

Former Tennessee quarterback and popular, three-time Swain County High state champion Heath Shuler from Bryson City was the last Democrat to win the seat in 2010.

Absentee ballots go into the mail Sept. 4 – or five weeks from this coming Friday. North Carolinians will choose a U.S. senator, all 14 members of the U.S. House, and all 170 members of the General Assembly.