New polls show Republicans in Texas losing ground in races

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(The Center Square) – New polls show possibly worse outcomes for Republicans in Texas in November.

Polls also point to Republicans losing support among Hispanic voters who say they are worse off financially under the Trump administration citing their top reason for voting for Democrats is the economy.

In the gubernatorial race, Real Clear Politics has labeled it a toss-up, the first time Gov. Greg Abbott’s political career. 

According to a Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, Abbott leads his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, by between one and seven points. Most polls have the race statistically tied just weeks before the election. The latest Polymarket spread puts Abbott's chances of winning at 80%. 

In Fort Bend County, the most diverse county in Texas, a new Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll has Republicans losing across the board. Of the county’s one million residents, 29% are White, 25% Latino, 22% Asian American, and 20% Black.  

Among those polled, Hinojosa has 53% support compared to Abbott’s 42%. Abbott lost the county in 2022 by five points to Democrat Robert (Beto) O’Rourke. Abbott won reelection in 2022 by 11 points, defeating O’Rourke by a vote of 55% to 44%. 

In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by 18 points in Fort Bend County, according to the TSU poll. In 2024, Democrat U.S. Rep. Colin Allred beat Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz by 8 points in the county. Cruz won reelection by 14 points after multiple polls indicated the race was tied, The Center Square reported. 

In other key races in the county, Republicans trail across the board and by large margins, according to the TSU poll.

According to a new UnidosUS poll, a majority of Hispanic voters say they are worse off financially under the Trump administration than they were under the Biden administration. 

The survey polled 2,700 likely Hispanic voters nationwide with oversamples in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas. Those polled include 1,955 registered voters.

Among them, 68% said they are working harder and falling further behind due to higher economic costs.

The survey indicates “that the vast majority of working-class Hispanic families are working longer but struggling economically in unprecedented ways. Nearly half feel that they are worse off than just a year ago,” UnidosUS CEO Janet Murguía said. “Those polled are making unconscionable choices just to stay afloat. They’re eating less to save money, skipping doctors' visits or not filling prescriptions for needed medicine.”

For these voters, “the cost-of-living crisis is not a headline,” UnidosUS said. “It is a daily calculation at the grocery store, the gas pump and the pharmacy counter. Only 12% say they live comfortably; 61% say they just meet their expenses or struggle to.”

Among those polled, 83% ranked the cost of living as their top concern, followed by jobs and wages (55%) and healthcare (52%).

Among Independent voters, 41% said, “neither party is advancing the interests and needs of working people,” according to the poll.

According to a Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision poll, Republicans in south Texas are losing support among Hispanic voters in congressional races in districts 15, 28 and 34. This is consistent with other TSU poll findings, The Center Square reported. 

In the Cook poll, 59.5% of south Texas voters said they were voting for a Democrat. Their top issue of concern is the economy, 29.8%, and opposition to Trump administration policies, 23.3%. The majority, 64%, said they disapprove of the president’s job performance. 

The findings are a reversal from two years ago when Hispanic voters overwhelmingly voted for President Donald Trump and Republicans in Texas. Hispanic voters in Texas border counties also ushered in an unprecedented red wave, voting for Republicans in historically Democratic communities, The Center Square reported.

In key races in Texas, Trump-endorsed congressional candidates in south Texas are now trailing in the polls, The Center Square reported.