Voters in largest Texas county say Texas, country heading in wrong direction

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(The Center Square) – A new poll of registered voters in Texas’ largest county indicates that the majority of voters think the U.S. and Texas are heading in the wrong direction. 

Republicans in key races are also trailing in polls in the county by wider margins than in previous elections, according to a new poll conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. 

It surveyed voters in Harris County who disproportionately influence elections in the state because of its population size and the greatest number of registered voters. The county also has more state representatives and members of Congress than other counties in the state. 

As the largest county in Texas and the third most populous county in the country, Harris County has long been considered a bellwether for Texas politics. 

Its population surpassed five million in 2025 and is greater than the populations of 26 states. Its population increased by nearly 25% since 2010 with most new residents moving to Houston, the county seat.

Houston is the largest city in Texas with a population of nearly 2.5 million. If it were a state, it would be the 36th largest state in the country. Houston is the fourth largest city in the U.S. and is projected to become the third largest city in less than a decade.

The county was historically Republican, shifting left in the last few years. Earlier this year, Gov. Greg Abbott vowed to flip the county red. 

Recent polling reveals a different trend, including the latest Hobby poll.

According to the poll, 71% of Harris County likely voters believe the county is heading in the wrong direction: 79% of Republicans, 79% of Independents and 63% of Democrats. 

Another majority, 63%, believe Texas is heading in the wrong direction. A greater majority, 67%, believe the United States is heading in the wrong direction.

In the governor’s race, Democrat state Rep. Gina Hinojosa holds a 16-point lead over Abbott in Harris County. Abbott lost the county in 2022 by 9.6 points but won reelection statewide by nearly 11 points.

This election is the first time in Abbott’s career that polls show the race is statistically tied. Recent forecasts projected the race as a toss-up or leaning left, The Center Square reported. 

Abbott is running for his fourth term after being previously elected and reelected by large margins. 

In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat state Rep. James Talarico holds a 22-point lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the county. In 2024, U.S. Sen. Ted Cuz lost the county by 11 points but won reelection. 

Polling companies have labeled the race as a toss-up. Paxton's campaign has been plagued by scandals and some Republicans statewide have expressed why they won't vote for him, The Center Square reported.

While 97% of Democrats polled said they were voting for Talarico, 85% of Republicans polled said they were voting for Paxton, according to the Hobby survey.

When it comes to local policies, the majority of voters, 72%, oppose Democratic Harris County commissioners increasing property taxes by 7.6%. Voters continue to express outrage and the state legislature has said it will address the issue in the next legislative session next year. 

The majority of voters across party lines oppose the tax hike: 92% of Republicans, 80% of Independents, and 56% of Democrats, according to the poll. 

The top issues in a county judge race for all voters are crime and public safety, 47%, and property taxes, 36%, according to the poll. 

The majority polled, 63%, expressed an unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump.

Of those polled, 55% of likely voters are women, 49% are white, 23% are Hispanic and 18% are Black. Fifty percent polled are over age 55; 33% between the ages of 35 and 54; 17% between the ages of 18 and 34. The majority, 53%, have a college degree; 47% polled identified as Democrats, 39% as Republicans and 8% as Independents.