Polls show tight Texas governor race, closest margin in Abbott’s career

Regional News

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7:20 AM on Thursday, August 6

(The Center Square) – Three new polls show a tight race in the Texas governor’s race, the closest in Gov. Greg Abbott’s career.

Abbott is running for his fourth term, challenged by state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, D-Austin.

Abbott is running in a midterm election where some Texas Republican voters are expressing dissatisfaction with incumbent Republicans and Trump administration policies.

Abbott, who has historically held a double-digit lead against opponents, is now statistically tied with a lesser-known opponent for the first time in his political career.

In 2002, when Abbott first ran for attorney general, he won by 16 points. He won reelection twice: by 23 points in 2006 and 30 points in 2010.

In his first gubernatorial race in 2014, Abbott won by more than 20 points. He won reelection twice again: by 13 points in 2018 and 11 points in 2022.

Now running for his fourth term, Abbott’s lead has shrunk from 7 points to 1 point in a month. The most recent polls have Abbott in a statistical tie.

A new Texas Pulse poll shows a one point difference, with Abbott leading Hinojosa 46% to 45%. Abbott's lead has dropped from its last poll conducted in June of 49% to 43%, it says.

“The Governor's race looks much more competitive than it did in June, suggesting that Democrats could have opportunities in several statewide contests,” Texas A&M Professor of Political Science Kirby Goidel said in a statement. “At the same time, these races are still taking shape. Governor Abbott is well-known to nearly all Texan likely voters who give him near breakeven favorability and job performance ratings. On the other hand, many voters are still forming opinions about Gina Hinojosa. Nearly one in three likely voters – 31 percent - said they did not know enough about Hinojosa to form an opinion.”

A new Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll has Abbott leading Hinojosa 49%-43%, with 3% supporting Libertarian Pat Dixon and 5% undecided.

Abbott holds a lead among white, older and college educated voters. Hinojosa holds a lead with Hispanic and Black voters, according to the data.

Abbott’s unfavorable rating of 51% is higher than his favorable rating of 48%. Hinojosa’s favorability rating of 37% is higher than her unfavorable rating of 28%.

The poll was conducted among 1,200 likely Texas voters between July 27 and 30. It has a margin of error of 2.83%.

A Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research Fox News Poll has the two statistically tied with Abbott leading Hinojosa by one point: 50% to 49%.

Those polled cited inflation and high prices as their top concern, followed by immigration and border security.

The poll was conducted among 1,006 Texas registered voters between July 23 and 27. It has a margin of error of 3 points. It also includes an oversample of registered Hispanic voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file.

A Texas Public Opinion Research poll last month had Abbott leading by 3 points, 45% to 42%, with 10% undecided. In this poll, Hinojosa is leading with independent, moderate, Black and Hispanic voters. Abbott is leading among college educated and white voters, according to the data.

The poll was conducted among 1,048 likely Texas voters from July 15 to July 17. It has a margin of error of 3.4%.

A New York Times/Siena poll conducted in late June had Abbott holding a 7-point lead over Hinajosa, 51% to 44%.

Those polled said President Donald Trump’s policies have hurt Texas. The majority disapprove of his war against Iran, his tariff policy, and high gas prices stemming from both. The majority also said Texas’ economic conditions are fair/poor under Trump and Abbott.